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presentation_planning [2018/01/21 09:55] (current)
admin created
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 +{{ :​wiki:​logo.png?​nolink&​400|}}
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 +June 30, 2017
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 +<​html><​center>&​nbsp;<​br/><​br/></​html>​
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 +====== Oregon Crop Losses, 1948 – 2016 Investigation ======
 +<​html></​center></​html>​
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 +===== Introduction =====
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 +The following data has been available for anyone to look at for some time.  A member of the Engineers for a Sustainable Future got curious about whether Oregon growers were being affected by climate change. ​ Crop loss claims on insurance turned out to be a way to investigate that.  The records were obtained for the state for this time period, reporting data in number of claims paid and amount paid per claim for each county.  ​
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 +A spreadsheet person (actually a math wizard who happened to be good at spreadsheets) was recruited, and the program was developed to turn the data into graphs.
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 +Most recently, inflation data was obtained so that the dollar numbers could be adjusted to “constant dollars” (compensating for inflation).
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 +You will notice that in the last 3 decades, the numbers have started following a “hockey stick” that looks much like the rising CO2 curves showing the drivers of climate change.  ​
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 +The results and any thoughts about them have not been evaluated by a large body of experts, yet.  Our suspicion is that the correlation with climate change is real, and the trend is important. ​ We therefore believe that this needs serious investigation and plans for dealing with it made.
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 +We present the information here with the expectation that we will receive interesting contributions from  people with a wide range of expertise. ​ We will all learn, and be better able to support planning as the information is further gathered.
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 +
 +
 +
 +===== Getting Curious =====
 +
 +
 +Our Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) has reported in their Third Annual Report the devastating news that climate change holds for our future. ​ This most recent report deals with the physical impacts expected after conducting analysis of historical trends with predictions from climate models.
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 +http://​www.occri.net/​media/​1055/​ocar3_final_all_01-30-2017_compressed.pdf
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 +Here’s what they say about the likely economic consequences to Oregon’s GDP.  “Climate change will impact Oregon’s economy, but more research is needed. ​ Some economic assessments have been done at national and global levels, but more information is needed about the regional, state, and local economic impacts of climate change.”
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 +While this predicts a likely problem, it fails to bring number to it.  Being engineers, we wanted more.
 +
 +===== Finding data =====
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 +After scouring the open internet to locate any assessment of impacts to Oregon in particular, including Federal and State Departments of Agriculture,​ we came to the decision we would deploy our technical skill sets to ferret facts from annual crop loss data posted on the Federal Risk Management Agency webpages. ​ Citizen science is alive and well.
 +
 +===== Oregon Climate Impacts Get Interesting =====
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 +Without adjusting for inflation the raw numbers tell a significant story. ​ Total all-year crop insurance claims are summarized in Table 1.
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 +Table 1: Summary Table of All Years in Study: ​
 +{{:​images:​table_1_sumofallyears.jpg?​nolink&​600|}}
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 +It is clearly evident that Oregon’s Second Congressional District dominates in number of events as well as dollar losses.
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 +Figure 1 shows the area from which the data was most disturbing, and we therefore detail by year on the following charts.
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 +===== Figure 1  Second Congressional District =====
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 +{{ ::​figure_1_second_congressional_district.jpg?​nolink |}}
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 +Figures 2 and 3 depict dollar losses and crop loss events, respectively
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 +===== Figure 2: Annual Crop Loss History in total dollar value of losses per year: =====
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 +{{ :​figure_2_annual_crop_loss_history_in_total_dollar_value_of_losses_per_year_.jpg?​nolink |}}
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 +
 +===== Figure 3 Annual Crop Loss History in number of losses per year: =====
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 +{{ ::​figure_3_annualcroploss_istory_in_number_of_losses_per_year_.jpg?​nolink |}}
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 +Our methodology employs conventional analytics in data extraction, analysis and graphical representation as shown in Figure 4.
 +
 +===== Figure 4.  ESF Analytics =====
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 +{{ ::​figure_4_esf_analytics.jpg?​nolink&​600 |}}
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 +ESF is not ready to predict possible futures from extrapolation of trends, no matter how dire they may appear. ​ Our chosen role is to communicate objective, verifiable facts for the benefit of the common good.  But risks to Oregon’s annual crop production will very likely increase for decades as combined weather, climate habitability and crop predictability decline.
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 +Mike Unger, President, Engineers for a Sustainable Future
presentation_planning.txt · Last modified: 2018/01/21 09:55 by admin